rugby world cup 2023 – round five

by allyn freeman

The fifth and final week concluded the preliminary qualifying rounds for RWC 2023. Two matches proved surprising; Portugal upset Fiji 24-23 in the last two-minutes of play, and England barely beat Samoa 18-17.

            The lineup for this weekend’s quarterfinal matchups follows with current U.K. betting odds to win the title in parenthesis.

            Bracket A  – Saturday October 14 at 11 a.m. and 3 p.m. EST

            Wales (20-1) versus Argentina (40-1) and Ireland (3-1) versus South Africa (3-1)

            Bracket B  – Sunday, October 15 at 11 a.m. and 3 p.m. EST

            England (11-1) versus Fiji (40-1) and France (3-1) versus New Zealand (4-1)

Pools Results

Pool A                         Pool B                               Pool C                               Pool D                           

France 4-0 18 points   Ireland  4-0 19 points    Wales 4-0    19 points      England 4-0 18 points

New Z.  3-1 15    ”        S.Africa   3-1 15    ”           Fiji.    2-2    11    ”          Argent.  3-1 14    “

Italy     2-2 10    ”         Scotland  2-2  10   ”          Austr  2-2    10    ”          Japan     2-2    9   “

Urugy. 1-3  5    ”        Tonga      1-3   5     ”         Port.  1-2-1    6   ”           Samoa.  1-3    3   “

Namib 0-4  0     ”        Romania 0-4  0      ”         Geor. 0-3-1    3.   ”          Chile     0-4    0   “

Analysis

• The top ranked four nations (i.e.; Ireland, France, Springboks, and All Blacks) qualified as predicted;
• Wales and England advanced from easier Pools;
• Fiji (2-2) advanced with one more bonus point than Australia, also 2-2;
• Fiji is Cinderella quarterfinal qualifier for the first time;
• Australia bombed out of quarterfinals for the first instance in nine previous RWC tournaments;
• Portugal gained its first RWC win;
• Thomas Ramos, French kicker, led all scorers with 61 points;
• The three Island nations (Samoa, Tonga, and Fiji) recorded a 4-8 total result;
• Italy suffered blowout losses to the All Blacks and France;
• Japan at 2-2 failed to improve on past RWC outcomes;
• Damian Penaud of France scored the most tries (6);
• The poorest choice of words: An Italian player boasted, “We’re coming for the

            All Blacks.” Final tally: All Blacks 96 – Italy 17; and,

• A Rugby pundit, “The history of the knock-out rounds suggests it will be fine margins that win games, and a kicker operating at 80% plus could be the difference between victory and defeat.”

Predictions (Top six)

                        Advance          Advance          Win

Team               Semis (%)       Finals (%).      RWC (%)       

Ireland             55                    41                    21

South Africa   45                    36                    19

France             55                    40                    20

N..Z.                45                    34                    17

Wales              59                    14                    10

England           74                    21                      7                               

Round Five – Recap 

            – Wales 43 – Georgia 19

            – England 18 – Samoa 17

            – France 60 – Italy 17

            – New Zealand 73 – Uruguay 0

            – Argentina 39 – Japan 27

            – Ireland 36 – Scotland 14

            – Tonga 48 – Romania 24

            – Portugal 24 – Fiji 23

Quarterfinal Matchups

            England vs. Fiji (Marseille) – The Islanders defeated England 30-22 earlier this year at Twickenham. Fiji is motivated by having beaten Australia, but confidence was lowered after recent loss to Portugal. England played indifferently against Samoa. England will be favored.

            Wales vs. Argentina (Marseille) – Wales sailed through the first round with four convincing victories against Australia, Fiji, Georgia, and Portugal. The Welsh have one third place finish in RWC history. Wales will be motivated by a large visiting fan base that will view the match.

            Ireland vs. New Zealand (Paris) – The number one ranked XV in the world against the traditional powerhouse rated #4. Ireland are undefeated in the last 17 matches. The All Blacks offense resurfaced in the three victories against Italy, Uruguay, and Namibia. The Irish have not advanced out of the quarterfinals in eight of nine past Rugby World Cups.

            France vs. South Africa (Paris) – The number 2 and number 3 ranked sides meet in an epic clash. The Springboks looked efficient and cohesive against the three other teams in its Pool. The win could be decided by the success of penalties where Ramos of France has been outstanding this RWC.  French star scrumhalf Dupont returns after injury.

Final Note

            NBC’s Peacock Channel will broadcast the matches via paid subscription.